- Edwards Lifesciences issued fiscal guidance for 2020 Thursday morning, targeting sales in the range of $4.5 billion to $5 billion, with more than half expected to come from its transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) business, which is set to increase up to 15% next year.
- The company pegs a growing, aging population, more health systems prioritizing structural heart care, indication expansion, awareness of transcatheter technologies and advancement of the technologies themselves as its key levers for growth.
- Edwards said its Sapien 3 Ultra valve will comprise most of its TAVR sales in the United States and Europe next year, as it simultaneously plans a pivotal trial for its next-generation TAVR valve, called X4, within the next 18 months.
Across heart valve treatment markets, Edwards projects worldwide transcatheter valve therapy opportunities to exceed $10 billion by 2024. At least 70% lies within aortic valve treatment, with the remainder in mitral and tricuspid therapies.
That latest forecast represents a slight bump to the company's targets offered last year, as it now foresees the TAVR opportunity surpassing the $7 billion mark in the next five years.
Analysts at Jefferies said in a Dec. 3 note preceding the investor event that Edwards has a history of low-balling market estimates. Edwards' outlook represents a 9% CAGR for TAVR compared to Jefferies' 12%, the analysts noted, the latter of which has the TAVR opportunity hitting $7 billion by 2023.
The analysts also pointed out that Edwards in 2014 expected the TAVR market to be worth $3 billion in 2019; in near-term guidance reaffirmed Thursday, Edwards expects 2019 sales to close out approaching $4.3 billion.
Edwards Lifesciences guidance for 2020
|Fiscal Year 2020 Non-GAAP Guidance||Amount|
|Surgical Structural Heart||$820-860 million|
|Critical Care||$780-820 million|
|FX Impact on Sales (at current rates)||~$40 million unfavorable|
|Gross Profit Margin||76-77%|
|R&D % of Sales||17-18%|
|Free Cash Flow||$1.0-1.1 billion|
Source: Edwards Lifesciences