- Cowen analysts released a report Tuesday that forecasts a significant rise in the use of continuous glucose monitors over the next five years, with volume seen growing 25% to 30% annually as more Type 1 as well as "intensively managed" Type 2 patients adopt the technology.
- Use of insulin pumps is also expected to climb, accelerating at an annual rate above 10%, driven by new product introductions, the analysts project.
- Meanwhile, doctors at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School released a gloomy evaluation of treatment outcomes for diabetes patients between 2005 and 2016, finding that only one in four adults achieved treatment targets despite advances in medical care for the disease. The study was published Monday in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine.
The Massachusetts General and Harvard analysis of 2,488 people suggests there's ample room to improve treatment outcomes among adults diagnosed with diabetes. The researchers assessed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted between 2005 and 2016.
They found that 23% of U.S. adults with diagnosed diabetes met a composite health goal in 2013-2016, compared with 23% in 2005-2008, and 25% in 2009-2012.
Gaps in achieving care targets persisted particularly among younger patients ages 18 to 44 years, female and non-white adults, the analysis also found. Middle-aged and older adults with diagnosed diabetes had higher odds of achieving treatment targets.
The Cowen analysts reached their conclusions on potential diabetes device growth based on a survey of 100 endocrinologists. Increasing awareness of new technologies as companies increase investments, improved reimbursement, product innovation and greater penetration of the Type 2 market are expected to drive significant growth.
Broader adoption among Type 2 patients is a matter of "when," not "if," the Cowen analysts said. The Type 2 patient population continues to increase, presenting a large opportunity for companies producing continuous glucose monitors.
For Type 1 patients, the Cowen analysts predict market penetration for continuous glucose monitors could reach 70% by 2023.
In the insulin pump market, new products are expected to drive greater adoption, with physicians in the survey indicating more interest among Type 2 patients, which, to date, haven't widely adopted the technology.
Among manufacturers of continuous glucose monitors, the analysts expect Abbott and Dexcom to dominate the market long term. Medtronic is expected to remain the leader in insulin pumps, but Tandem and Insulet are seen taking significant market share.